Movement by the German government towards approval for UniCredit’s takeover of Commerzbank could open the door to further European banking acquisitions, according to Reuters.

The newswire said it spoke to 11 analysts, bankers, and economists about the Commerzbank acquisition, with several stating that the deal could set a precedent that other major banks could use to bolster consolidation efforts.

”The potential deal between UniCredit and Commerzbank creates the basis for a pan-European champion, so it's undeniable ​that it would add pressure for peers to pursue further scale,” Antonio Reale, co-head of European banks at Bank of America, told Reuters.

Recent examples of attempted consolidation efforts include UniCredit’s Banco BPM takeover bid, which it withdrew from citing government interference as a blocker, as well as BBVA’s failed €14.8bn bid for Banco Sabadell.

UniCredit began its takeover plans for Commerzbank in September 2024, at which time it held a nine per cent stake in the German lender. In March, it set out its voluntary share exchange for Commerzbank shareholders at 0.485 UniCredit shares per Commerzbank share or around €30.8 per share. This was a four per cent premium on Commerzbank’s 13 March closing price.

Commerzbank officially turned down UniCredit’s bid in May, but its shareholders continued to engage in the exchange.

In July, UniCredit achieved a 48 per cent stake in the German lender, effectively giving it control of the bank. That month, Commerzbank’s chair Jens Weidmann invited UniCredit to open talks on a merger.

Bettina Orlopp, chief executive at Commerzbank, told press in August that Commerzbank and UniCredit are in talks to ensure the deal is “in the genuine interest of both UniCredit and Commerzbank”, though formal negotiations had not yet started.

The German government’s approval is key for the deal, as the state holds a 12.11 stake in Commerzbank.

Initially opposed to the Italian bank taking over a core German institution, with chancellor Friedrich Merz having dubbed UniCredit’s activity “hostile and aggressive”, the German government has since signalled it will not block the deal from progressing.

In August, Reuters reported that German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil would meet with Andrea Orcel, chief executive at UniCredit, to directly discuss the firm’s takeover of Commerzbank.

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